Posture by subject
A word for each pillar (strong, middling, weak) and the direction it is moving. The words compare each pillar with the other covered countries; they are not a ranking of the subjects.
Countries
| Subject | Posture by pillar | As of | Latest episode |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | fiscal weak → steadyproductivity middling → steadyenergy middling ↑ improvinghousing weak ↓ worseninginstitutional middling ↑ improvingpolitical economy lock in weak → steadyhuman capital middling → steady | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| China | fiscal weak ↓ worseningdemographic weak ↓ worseningproductivity strong ↑ improvingenergy middling → steadyinstitutional middling ↑ improvingpolitical economy lock in weak ↓ worseninghuman capital middling ↑ improving | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| Japan | fiscal middling ↑ improvingdemographic weak ↓ worseningproductivity middling ↑ improvingenergy middling ↑ improvinghousing weak ↓ worseninginstitutional strong ↑ improvingpolitical economy lock in weak ↑ improvinghuman capital middling ↓ worsening | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| South Korea | fiscal middling ↓ worseningdemographic weak ↓ worseningproductivity strong ↑ improvingenergy weak ↓ worseninghousing middling ↑ improvinginstitutional middling ↑ improvingpolitical economy lock in middling ↓ worseninghuman capital strong ↑ improving | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| Finland | fiscal middling ↓ worseningdemographic middling → steadyproductivity weak ↓ worseningenergy middling ↑ improvinghousing middling → steadyinstitutional middling ↓ worseningpolitical economy lock in weak ↓ worseninghuman capital middling → steady | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| United Kingdom | fiscal middling ↓ worseningdemographic strong ↑ improvingproductivity middling ↑ improvingenergy middling ↓ worseninghousing middling ↑ improvinginstitutional middling ↓ worseningpolitical economy lock in weak ↓ worseninghuman capital middling ↑ improving | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| India | Not yet covered: 3 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
| Singapore | Not yet covered: 3 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
| Philippines | Not yet covered: 1 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
Regions
| Subject | Posture by pillar | As of | Latest episode |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Asia | fiscal middling ↓ worseningproductivity strong ↑ improvingenergy middling ↓ worseninginstitutional middling ↑ improvingpolitical economy lock in middling ↓ worseninghuman capital weak ↓ worsening Partly covered: members covering 16.7 percent of the region's weight. | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| South America and Mexico | fiscal middling ↓ worseningproductivity weak ↑ improvingenergy middling ↓ worseninginstitutional weak → steadypolitical economy lock in middling ↑ improvinghuman capital middling ↑ improving Partly covered: members covering 33.3 percent of the region's weight. | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| Central Europe | fiscal middling → steadydemographic middling ↑ improvingproductivity weak ↓ worseningenergy middling ↑ improvinghousing middling ↑ improvinginstitutional middling ↓ worseningpolitical economy lock in weak ↓ worseninghuman capital middling ↓ worsening Partly covered: members covering 14.3 percent of the region's weight. | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| Eastern Europe | Not yet covered: 1 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
| Africa | fiscal weak ↓ worseningproductivity middling ↓ worseningenergy middling ↓ worseninginstitutional middling ↑ improvingpolitical economy lock in strong ↑ improvinghuman capital weak ↑ improving Partly covered: members covering 16.7 percent of the region's weight. | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| Central Asia | Not yet covered: 0 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
| Middle East | Not yet covered: 0 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
| Australia and New Zealand | Not yet covered: 1 of 25 facts in place. | - | - |
| Nordic countries | fiscal middling → steadydemographic middling ↓ worseningproductivity weak ↓ worseningenergy middling ↑ improvinghousing middling ↓ worseninginstitutional middling ↓ worseningpolitical economy lock in middling → steadyhuman capital middling ↓ worsening Partly covered: members covering 60 percent of the region's weight. | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
Asset classes
| Subject | Where it stands | As of | Latest episode |
|---|---|---|---|
| US equities | Not yet covered: 2 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| European equities | Not yet covered: 2 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Japanese equities | Not yet covered: 2 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Chinese equities | Not yet covered: 2 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Government bonds and duration | Euro ten-year yield, percentile of its recorded range: 100 percent of its record (1 Oct 2026)US thirty-year yield, percentile of its recorded range: 99.9 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026) | 2 Oct 2026 | - |
| Credit | Not yet covered: 1 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Gold and precious metals | Gold price in dollars, percentile of its recorded range: 90.4 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026) | 2 Oct 2026 | - |
| Energy and commodities | Brent price in dollars, percentile of its recorded range: 92.7 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026) | 2 Oct 2026 | - |
| Real estate | Not yet covered: 1 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Cash and bills | Not yet covered: 1 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Trend following | Not yet covered: 2 of 6 facts in place. | - | - |
| Crypto | Bitcoin price in dollars, percentile of its recorded range: 85.5 percent of its record (4 Oct 2026) | 4 Oct 2026 | - |
| Currencies | USD percentile of ten years: 50 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026)JPY percentile of ten years: 91 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026)GBP percentile of ten years: 19 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026)CHF percentile of ten years: 10 percent of its record (2 Oct 2026) | 2 Oct 2026 | - |
Liquidity
Central-bank liquidity is one input to how we read the economic cycle and the markets. It says nothing about any single company.
| Area | Impulse | 13-week change | Funding stress | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | flat | -0.19 percent of GDP | none | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Euro area inflation: headline 3.8 % (September 2026); core not available | draining | -1.55 percent of GDP | unknown | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Japan inflation: headline 1.9 % (July 2026); core not available | draining | -2.88 percent of GDP | unknown | 1 Aug 2026 |
| United Kingdom | No data feed yet. | - | ||
| China inflation: headline 0.8 % (August 2026); core not available | No data feed yet. | - | ||
| Global (the covered areas together) | draining | -0.65 percent of GDP | unknown | 30 Sep 2026 |
Regimes
The weekly register has not produced a reading yet.
A regime reads confirming when most of the indicators we can measure point toward it, denying when most point away, mixed when they split, and insufficient data when fewer than half can be measured. It is a reading of conditions, not a forecast.
Claim checks
What public sources have claimed, set against the data that came in afterwards. A verdict is given only when the data allow one.
No checks published yet.
What changed
This update, 4 Oct 2026
- 4 Oct 2026First published view.
Episodes
No episodes released yet.