Charging rules, the midterm rally and long bonds

2026-11-03 · The rulebook · Finland's EV charging bill, Bravos's midterm rally case, Howell's liquidity and bonds case

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A Finnish EV charging bill meets a power-price spike, then two cases for after the US vote, Bravos's gridlock rally and Michael Howell's long bonds, tested against the numbers.

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Finland's EV charging bill: at proposal, and why the controller matters

Finland's government bill HE 258/2026 amends the law on equipping buildings with electric-vehicle charging points, charging readiness, and automation and control systems. It was published as a government bill to Parliament on 15 October. In its lifecycle it sits at proposal: nothing binds yet.

A law about equipping buildings lands on whoever owns and builds them. For a Nordic investor that means listed property owners, housing companies and the construction firms that will do retrofit work. The next step is the committee text, which settles whether existing buildings are caught, on what timetable, and whether the automation and control requirement survives.

That last part is the one that pays. Finland's power price averaged about 167 euros per megawatt-hour so far this week, against 42 last week, even with Sweden's SE3 zone sending a net flow of roughly 700 megawatts into Finland. Control systems that shift charging out of expensive hours earn their keep in a week like this one; in a week like the last, they are a compliance bill. If the committee has to give ground, we would rather see the requirement kept and the deadline stretched than the reverse.

Read: at proposal this is a cost line for property owners, not a price event. The level is the Finnish power price. The trigger that makes it near-term is a committee report keeping the automation requirement and fixing compliance dates for existing buildings. What would change this is a rewrite narrowing the bill to new construction.

Bravos Research's midterm rally, tested

As Americans vote in the midterms, Bravos Research argues a Democratic sweep could spark a rally by reducing policy uncertainty.

The mechanism is where we disagree. Multiples expand when discount rates fall or earnings get safer; gridlock does neither, and the Fed, not Congress, sets rates, with a decision tomorrow. On earnings, our read is that the growth under this market rests on a handful of AI-exposed names, with a memory reset and then credit confirmation as the next links. The credit sign moved only slightly: US high yield at 3.44 percentage points, from 3.38. A market about to re-rate on relief would normally see that spread narrowing.

Alex Mikolitsis of Nomura, on Odd Lots, describes a booming structured-notes market whose dealer hedging amplifies equity volatility. That fattens the tail, but an amplifier needs a fall to amplify, and credit has not started one. It fits a grind lower rather than a break. Our standing view remains that the S&P settles lower from here.

Read: the case for paying up for a gridlock rally is not there while the high-yield spread is widening. Level: the high-yield spread at 3.44. Trigger: the spread widening further alongside a major hyperscaler cutting next year's capex guidance. What would change it: a divided Congress and the spread back below 3.38.

Michael Howell's case for long bonds

On Monetary Matters with Jack Farley, Michael Howell argues global liquidity has peaked and is contracting, and advises rotating out of equities, credit and commodities into long-duration government bonds.

We share the bonds-over-stocks preference: our standing note favours short-dated euro and US government bonds over US equity. We part on duration and on timing. A liquidity contraction bites the weakest borrowers first, and high yield at 3.44 is not a refinancing crisis.

The funding story is real. Dan Krausz on the same programme argued that AI hardware sell-offs and credit spread widening come from liquidity constraints and debt supply rather than weak fundamentals. Finance Bureau reads a proposed House Democratic resolution against AI bailouts as a signal of debt-driven AI credit risk. We agree on the politics, since a lender without a rescue should demand more spread, but not the timing: a crash needs that spread to break wider first.

On duration: euro-area inflation was 3.8 per cent in September, up from 3.2, so long duration is a bet that recession arrives before inflation leaves. At home, Sweden's inflation was 1.0 per cent and Norway's 3.4; if Howell's duration case works anywhere in the Nordics, it works first in Sweden and last in Norway.

Read: levels are euro-area inflation at 3.8 and high yield at 3.44. Howell is confirmed if the spread breaks clearly wider. Our read holds while inflation stays near 3.8 with credit calm, and is wrong if inflation turns down hard while credit stays calm.

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