Calibration
The show does not get to be vague. When an episode makes a
call, the call is written down here — the claim itself, the date it has to
resolve by, and the observation that settles it. The clock is short, usually
under two weeks, because a forecast that never comes due is not a forecast.
When the date arrives the call is marked hit,
miss or void, and it stays on this page
either way. Misses are not quietly removed; that is the whole point of
keeping the ledger in public.
This is a calibration record — it measures whether the
reads are any good, and nothing else. It is not a track record of investment
performance, and nothing on this page is investment advice.
Aavistus is a new framework, still under development. We
will make mistakes, and every dated call is settled here in public so you can
see them; the aim is to keep calibrating until the record beats the average
forecaster, not to sound right.
Ledger updated 2026-11-05 05:58 UTC
Open calls
Geopolitics
No US strike on a named Iranian nuclear site is confirmed by the White House or the Pentagon by November 11, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-11
How it settlesA White House or Pentagon statement naming a US strike on an Iranian nuclear facility issued by November 11.
Geopolitics
No European government is named as a participant in the US-mediated Abu Dhabi talks on Russia and Ukraine by November 11, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-12
How it settlesReuters coverage or the State Department readout of the Abu Dhabi talks lists no European government delegation among the participants.
Geopolitics
US-mediated talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations take place in Abu Dhabi by November 11, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-12
How it settlesReuters, the State Department or the Kremlin reports Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Abu Dhabi with US mediation.
Geopolitics
Kyiv does not formally announce a halt to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities by November 13, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-13
How it settlesA statement from Zelensky or the Ukrainian presidency announcing a halt to oil strikes, as reported by Reuters or the BBC.
Daily
The US unemployment rate in the jobs report released on 6 November 2026 is 4.2 per cent or lower.
Resolves by2026-11-06
How it settlesThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release on 6 November 2026, as reported by Reuters.
Geopolitics
No Black Sea ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced by the Kremlin, Kyiv or the White House by November 14, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-14
How it settlesReuters, the Kremlin, the White House or Ukraine's presidency reporting a formally announced Black Sea ceasefire accepted by both Russia and Ukraine.
Geopolitics
The US Treasury does not publish a licence or delisting easing sanctions on Belarusian potash by November 13, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-13
How it settlesA US Treasury or Office of Foreign Assets Control release, or Reuters reporting of one, published by November 13.
Geopolitics
Ukraine does not strike a Russian oil refinery between October 30 and November 8, 2026.
Resolves by2026-11-08
How it settlesSettles false if Reuters or Ukraine's General Staff reports a Ukrainian drone or missile hit on a Russian oil refinery in that window.
Daily
The Riksbank holds its policy rate at 1.75 per cent at the 12 November 2026 decision.
Resolves by2026-11-12
How it settlesThe Riksbank's own policy rate announcement on 12 November 2026, as published by the Riksbank and reported by Reuters.
Daily
Norges Bank holds the key policy rate at 4.5 per cent at the 5 November 2026 meeting.
Resolves by2026-11-05
How it settlesNorges Bank's own press release on 5 November 2026 announcing no change to the key policy rate, carried by Reuters.
Geopolitics
The United States does not conduct a direct named military strike on Iranian territory by November 4.
Resolves by2026-11-04
How it settlesResolves TRUE if no Reuters or Bloomberg wire reports a US direct military strike on Iranian territory by 2026-11-04; FALSE if such a strike is reported in that window.
Geopolitics
The United States does not formally announce a reduction in American troop numbers in Europe by November 4.
Resolves by2026-11-04
How it settlesPentagon or White House statement reported in press-pool coverage (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, Guardian) between October 21 and November 4.
Daily
The Federal Reserve raises the fed funds target upper bound by 25 basis points at the 4 November 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolves by2026-11-04
How it settlesFOMC statement published by the Federal Reserve on 2026-11-04 and reported by Reuters.
Geopolitics
The US Treasury does not formally publish a general licence or Office of Foreign Assets Control action authorising dark-fleet tankers to shed Russia sanctions by November 3.
Resolves by2026-11-03
How it settlesA published general licence or Office of Foreign Assets Control action in the US Treasury's own release, or press-pool coverage from Reuters or Bloomberg.
Settled, last 30 days
GeopoliticsVoidEasy call
No formal Trump-Putin-Xi trilateral summit on Ukraine takes place by November 2.
Resolved on2026-11-05
Settled byVoid: the named sources could not settle it
What happenedCould not be settled from the White House, the Kremlin, Reuters, Bloomberg and press-pool coverage: the White House: 2 reports; the Kremlin: nothing in the window; Reuters: 4 reports; Bloomberg: 4 reports; press-pool coverage: 4 reports; the available reports were indirect.
How it settledNo White House, Kremlin or Xinhua announcement of a trilateral meeting, nor Reuters or Bloomberg press-pool coverage of one having taken place, by November 2.
Restated1 more time in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-11-02
GeopoliticsVoidEasy call
The United States Treasury does not formally approve a sale of Russian natural gas to European buyers by November 1, 2026.
Resolved on2026-11-04
Settled byVoid: the named sources could not settle it
What happenedCould not be settled from Reuters, Bloomberg and the Financial Times: Reuters: 4 reports; Bloomberg: 4 reports; the Financial Times: 4 reports; no report in the window named it.
How it settledA US Treasury OFAC license, general license or formal notice authorising Russian natural gas sales to European buyers, per Reuters, Bloomberg or the Financial Times.
Restated2 more times in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-11-01
DailyVoidContested
The ECB holds the deposit facility rate at 2.5 per cent at the 29 October 2026 meeting.
Resolved on2026-11-01
Settled byVoid: the named sources could not settle it
What happenedCould not be settled from the central bank, Reuters, Bloomberg and press-pool coverage: the central bank: 8 reports; Reuters: 3 reports; Bloomberg: 3 reports; press-pool coverage: 3 reports; the available reports were indirect.
How it settledECB monetary policy decision published by the ECB on 2026-10-29, confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg press-pool coverage.
Restated4 more times in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-10-29
GeopoliticsVoidEasy call
Donald Trump does not formally rescind the Russia diesel sanctions-relief deal by October 28.
Resolved on2026-10-31
Settled byVoid: the named sources could not settle it
What happenedCould not be settled from the White House and press-pool coverage: the White House: 3 reports; press-pool coverage: 11 reports; the available reports were indirect.
How it settledFormal White House or Treasury announcement reversing the diesel sanctions-relief measure, per press-pool coverage and Treasury/White House statements.
Deadline was2026-10-28
GeopoliticsVoidContested
The United States does not formally suspend military intelligence sharing with Ukraine by October 26.
Resolved on2026-10-29
Settled byVoid: the named sources could not settle it
What happenedCould not be settled: the State Department could not be reached. Reuters: 4 reports; Bloomberg: 4 reports; the Financial Times: 3 reports; the White House: 9 reports; the State Department: not reachable.
How it settledSettled by Reuters, Bloomberg, CNN, the Financial Times, or an official White House or State Department statement confirming formal suspension of US military intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Deadline was2026-10-26
GeopoliticsHit
The United States Treasury does not grant formal sanctions-relief approval for a Lukoil-linked asset sale by October 18.
Resolved on2026-10-21
Settled bySettled by the operator
What happenedNo Treasury approval of the sale by 18 Oct: on 20 Oct the deal was still reported 'contingent on approval from the U.S. government'. OFAC's 15 Oct licences only extended existing waivers.
How it settledNo US Treasury OFAC authorisation, specific licence or Federal Register notice approving the Lukoil-linked asset sale on or before 2026-10-18.
Restated1 more time in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-10-18
GeopoliticsHitContested
The United States does not return B-1 bombers to RAF Fairford by October 19.
Resolved on2026-10-19
Settled bySettled on direct reporting (Al Jazeera, 13 Oct)
What happenedReports [0] and [7] confirm B-1 bombers were withdrawn from RAF Fairford; no Reuters or BBC report in the window shows a confirmed return by October 19.
How it settledSettled by absence of Pentagon confirmation or press-pool coverage per Reuters or BBC that B-1 bombers have been redeployed to RAF Fairford by October 19; any confirmed return settles it false.
Deadline was2026-10-19
GeopoliticsHitContested
The United States does not announce formal American military participation in Saudi strikes against Houthi positions by 18 October 2026.
Resolved on2026-10-18
Settled bySettled on direct reporting (Al Jazeera, 12 Oct)
What happenedNo report contains a White House, Pentagon, Reuters, or Al Jazeera confirmation of US combat operations against Houthi forces; report 8 explicitly notes US unwillingness to intervene in Yemen, and report 9 describes Saudi-led (not US) operations against Houthis.
How it settledWhite House or Pentagon press-pool announcement; Reuters or Al Jazeera confirming US combat operations against Houthi forces.
Restated1 more time in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-10-18
GeopoliticsHit
The United States and Iran do not announce a joint nuclear inspector-access framework by October 15.
Resolved on2026-10-15
Settled bySettled on direct reporting (Al Jazeera, 15 Oct)
What happenedReports through 2026-10-15 show active US-Iran hostilities with ships sinking in Hormuz and Iran escalating tactics; no report contains any joint US-Iran statement or press release announcing a dated inspector-access framework.
How it settledAbsence of a public joint US-Iran statement or press release announcing a dated inspector-access framework by October 15.
Restated1 more time in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-10-15
DailyHit
Nord Pool Finland's next weekly average stays below 100 euros per megawatt-hour.
Resolved on2026-10-15
Settled bySettled by the operator
What happenedNord Pool FI day-ahead average Mon 5 – Fri 9 Oct 2026: 31.09 EUR/MWh (31.78 over the full week) - below 100. Settled from the stored ENTSO-E day-ahead prices; the press search had voided it.
How it settledENTSO-E day-ahead weekly rollup for FI zone, Mon 5 Oct–Fri 9 Oct, published next Friday
Deadline was2026-10-09
GeopoliticsHitContested
EU ambassadors approve the roughly 1,650 new Russia sanctions designations in Coreper and the Council adopts the package by October 14.
Resolved on2026-10-14
Settled bySettled on direct reporting (the EU Official Journal, 8 Oct)
What happenedThe EU Official Journal published both a Council Implementing Regulation (2026/2257) and a Council Decision (CFSP 2026/2258) of 8 October 2026 imposing restrictive measures in view of Russia's destabilising activities, confirming Council adoption by 14 October.
How it settledCouncil of the EU press release or Reuters confirmation of Coreper approval and Council adoption; EU Official Journal publication of the designations.
Restated2 more times in later episodes - one forecast, counted once
Deadline was2026-10-14
FiHit
Yhdysvaltain virallinen työttömyysaste pysyy syyskuun raportissa vähintään 4,1 prosentissa.
Resolved on2026-10-08
Settled bySettled by the operator
What happenedOperator correction 2026-10-08: BLS LNS14000000 September 2026 = 4.2 percent; the call required at least ('vähintään') 4.1 percent, and 4.2 ≥ 4.1 — hit. The resolver inverted the comparator; numeric calls are now compared in code.
How it settledTarkistetaan Yhdysvaltain työministeriön (BLS) 2. lokakuuta 2026 julkaisemasta Employment Situation -raportista.
Deadline was2026-10-05
The record
13Hits
2Misses
5Voids
87%Hit rate