US Weekly 1.9.2026
brief · 2026-09-01 · tech · financials · energy · 1-week
§01 · Macro snapshot
| indicator | latest | prior | Δ | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y–2Y Treasury spread (pp) | 0.39 | 0.50 | −0.11 | 2026-08-28 |
| 10Y–3M Treasury spread (pp) | 0.83 | 0.86 | −0.03 | 2026-08-28 |
| High-yield OAS (pp) | 2.60 | 2.70 | −0.10 | 2026-08-28 |
| Unemployment rate (U3, %) | 4.1 | 4.2 | −0.1 | 2026-07-01 |
| Initial jobless claims | 203,000 | 207,000 | −4,000 | 2026-08-22 |
| Sahm rule (pp) | −0.03 | 0.07 | −0.10 | 2026-07-01 |
All series: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
§02 · Themes of the week
Soft-landing math firms into Friday's payrolls
The recession dashboard walked further away from the trigger this week. Sahm-rule real-time flipped negative to −0.03, down from 0.07 the prior month. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%. Initial claims held at 203,000, down 4,000 on the prior week. Credit corroborates: high-yield OAS tightened 10 basis points to 2.60%. And the 10Y–2Y curve flattened another 11 basis points to +0.39 — read alongside the labour prints, that shape is disinflation and cuts priced in, not a growth-fear flatten.
Counter: the flatten happens either way. If Friday's non-farm payrolls print sub-100k with unemployment ticking back to 4.2%, the same curve move becomes the "cuts are late" read and the regime shifts under it. Jobs data has been the swing series all summer.
This would be wrong if NFP prints below +75k, or if unemployment moves back to 4.2% or higher.
Sources: FRED (St Louis Fed).
AI capex leg came back on Nvidia's tape
Nvidia added 5.9% on the week after a blowout quarter and a $3.5B strategic stake in MediaTek confirmed midweek. Microsoft carried the second leg: +4.1% weekly, +9.2% on the month, with a $678B backlog headline reinforcing hyperscaler visibility. XLK closed +3.6% on the week at RSI 50.7 — not yet stretched. Alphabet was the internal tell: −2.5% weekly, with a mid-trend flip (still above the 200-day, now below the 30-week) after 60.7% one-year returns cooled. Meta stayed below both moving averages with 1y return −23.6%. The mega-cap tape is narrower than the index masks.
Counter: this rally has been carried by two names. If Alphabet keeps rolling and Meta cannot reclaim its 30-week, "AI capex reacceleration" collapses back to "Nvidia and Microsoft".
Wrong if XLK breaks back through its 200-day, or if a second hyperscaler prints capex guidance below the street.
Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Digitimes, Reuters.
Private-equity monetisation window opened
Deal announcements clustered. KKR agreed to sell USI Insurance to Aon for roughly $17B (New York Post 2026-08-30; Financial Times 2026-08-31) — the first Berkshire-style compound realisation for the platform. Eli Lilly agreed to buy Merida for $2.88B in an autoimmune bolt-on (Bloomberg, 2026-08-31). Nvidia's $3.5B MediaTek stake and Trump's public wave-through of Exxon into Venezuela add corporate M&A supply from opposite ends of the risk spectrum. HY OAS at 2.60% and the settled front-end give sponsors a rare window where clean exits price and financing prints — hence the burst.
Counter: this looks less like a broad re-open than four idiosyncratic deals catching the same open window. XLF finished −0.9% on the week. Banks aren't leading; asset managers and specific names are. If financials don't step up over the next two weeks, this is deal-count noise inside a favourable liquidity window, not a cycle change.
Wrong if HY OAS backs up above 3.0%, or if either the USI/Aon or Merida/Lilly deal draws early antitrust noise.
Sources: Bloomberg, Financial Times, New York Post, Reuters.
The catch ▸ Industrials RSI 19 while soft-landing indicators fire
XLI closed the week at RSI 19.3 — deeply oversold — with price still above both its 200-day and 30-week moving averages. That is a name-level distribution pattern hidden inside a nominally intact uptrend, arriving in the same week the Sahm rule de-triggered and jobless claims fell. Either the top-down math is early and industrials are the leading indicator, or one to two large weights are being sold on something specific and the sector aggregate is dragging.
§03 · Companies of interest
Research surface — not investment advice.
| name | exchange | sector | theme link | technicals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA (NVDA) | US | Semis | AI capex reacceleration — blowout quarter and $3.5B MediaTek stake this week | $220.78, 78%ile 52w, +5.9% 1w, RSI 52.5, RS +3.2 vs SPY 13w, above 200d/30w |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | US | Software | Hyperscaler backlog leg of AI capex ($678B backlog) | $507.29, 78%ile 52w, +4.1% 1w, RSI 52.2, RS +16.8 vs SPY 13w, above 200d/30w |
| Apple (AAPL) | US | Consumer Electronics | CEO transition to John Ternus is the near-term frame; Rosenblatt raised target to $303 — still below spot | $316.85, 77%ile 52w, +2.1% 1w, RSI 65.1, RS +2.0 vs SPY 4w, above 200d/30w |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | US | Comm. Svcs | Mega-cap breadth thinning; mid-trend flip: above 200d, below 30w | $339.35, 66%ile 52w, −2.5% 1w, RSI 44.2, RS −11.6 vs SPY 13w |
| Amazon (AMZN) | US | Consumer Cyclical | FTC ad-pricing lawsuit reportedly in preparation is the primary near-term driver | $259.77, 70%ile 52w, −0.9% 1w, RSI 38.1, above 200d/30w |
| Eli Lilly (LLY) | US | Pharma | M&A overhang — $2.88B Merida autoimmune bolt-on announced 2026-08-31 (Bloomberg) frames the −7.2% week; GLP-1 competitive pressure with Novo remains context | $1,156.73, 77%ile 52w, −7.2% 1w, RSI 40.2, above 200d/30w |
| KKR & Co (KKR) | US | Asset Mgmt | PE monetisation — $17B USI/Aon exit is the named driver this week | $109.72, 40%ile 52w, +2.2% 1w, RSI 47.6, above 200d/30w |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | US | Energy | Venezuela re-entry cleared by Trump; parallel Chevron Angola/Namibia deals price the geopolitics | $160.95, 79%ile 52w, −1.9% 1w, RSI 52.2, above 200d/30w |
| Energy Select (XLE) | US | Sector ETF | Sector-directional read on the Venezuela/geopolitics leg — RSI 72, +44.7% 1y | $63.96, 97%ile 52w, +1.4% 1w, above 200d/30w |
| Industrial Select (XLI) | US | Sector ETF | The catch anchor — RSI 19.3, deeply oversold inside an intact uptrend | $175.13, 69%ile 52w, −2.2% 1w, above 200d/30w |
Technicals: market data, computed 2026-09-01 13:37Z.
§04 · Calendar ahead
- 2026-09-04 · US Non-Farm Payrolls — the swing print. The soft-landing read in §02 Theme 1 flips on a downside surprise.
§05 · Methodology + disclaimer
Compiled from public macroeconomic data, financial press, regulatory filings, and proprietary analytical tools. This is research material, not investment advice.
2026-09-07 · v1.0