EU Daily 25.6.2026
brief · 2026-06-25 · defense · industrials · insurance · 5-day
§01 · Macro snapshot
| Series | Latest | Prior | Δ | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y UST spread | 0.34 pp | 0.38 pp | -0.04 | 2026-06-23 |
| 10Y-3M UST spread | 0.65 pp | 0.64 pp | +0.01 | 2026-06-23 |
| HY OAS spread (BAML) | 2.71% | 2.71% | flat | 2026-06-23 |
| Initial jobless claims | 226k | 230k | -4k | 2026-06-13 |
| Sahm Rule (real-time) | 0.10 | 0.13 | -0.03 | 2026-05-01 |
§02 · Themes of the week
Europe's joint China warning lands alongside a German defense pullback
Britain, France and Germany issued a rare joint warning to Beijing over moves in the Taiwan Strait this week. The same week, Berlin shelved a Rheinmetall warship contract; the stock fell on the report. The pairing is awkward. Europe is sharpening its rhetoric on Chinese naval pressure while one of its largest naval-platform suppliers loses a domestic order. The right way to read it: rhetorical convergence is cheap, procurement execution is hard, and the second is what funds the first.
Counter-thesis: the shelved contract is one program with program-specific reasons. Germany's overall defense budget trajectory is still up, and Rheinmetall's order book outside warships is intact.
This would be wrong if Berlin restores the contract within a quarter, or if other European navies announce accelerated procurement that more than offsets the shelved order.
Sources: Bloomberg, India Today, The Telegraph.
Heat wave stresses the grid; an insurance pricing signal arrives at the same time
Paris set a new June heat record, France went on red alert, and Belgian wholesale electricity briefly cleared €1,000/MWh. None of that is new on its own — Iberia has carried similar load before. What makes this week different is the second signal: Allianz's CEO publicly told Bloomberg "risk isn't properly priced at the moment", and the group flagged "major claims" coming for ship insurers from the Iran war. Catastrophe lines and marine lines, normally analysed separately, are both showing pre-positioning for higher pricing through H2.
Counter-thesis: a hot June is not a thesis. The Belgian €1,000 print was hours, not weeks; spot electricity spikes resolve quickly. Insurance pricing follows loss experience over years, not a single CEO interview.
This would be wrong if July-August heat reverts to the multi-year mean and Allianz Q2 results show no meaningful loss-cost migration in marine or property cat.
Sources: Biztoc, Bloomberg, gCaptain, NRK.
Polish-Ukrainian friction over reconstruction becomes visible
Zelensky cancelled a planned trip to Gdansk this week as the UPA historical dispute (Ukrainian Insurgent Army, WWII-era) resurfaced — a long-running open wound that Warsaw and Kyiv have generally kept off the bilateral agenda. Bloomberg framed it as historical tensions marring the Ukraine reconstruction push in Poland. The reconstruction stake is real money. Poland is one of the natural hubs for materiel staging, banking flows and labor pipelines into a post-war Ukraine, and any cooling of that channel slows the work that EU disbursement schedules assume.
Counter-thesis: cancelled trips are routine in wartime diplomacy. The historical dispute predates the war and has co-existed with deep functional cooperation for years.
This would be wrong if EU-Ukraine working-group meetings continue on schedule and disbursement timetables through Poland show no slippage in Q3.
Sources: Bloomberg, DW, Süddeutsche Zeitung.
§03 · Companies of interest
Research surface — not investment advice.
| Name | Exchange | Sector | Theme link | Technical snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding | NL (AMS) | Semiconductors | Export-control politics: Netherlands lobbying the US to drop new chip curbs targeting ASML sales | €1,656; 95% of 52w range; 1y +140%; RSI 74; above 200d/30w; industry PEAKING |
| Airbus | FR (PAR) | Aerospace & Defense | A380 wing-crack inspection order on 16 aircraft (24 Jun) layered on the May report of China delaying delivery approvals | €190; 87% of 52w range; 1y +13%; RSI 73; above 200d/30w |
| Allianz | DE (XET) | Insurance | Iran-war ship-insurance claims; CEO publicly flagging mispriced risk this week | €407; at 52w high; 1y +21%; RSI 82; above 200d/30w |
| TotalEnergies | FR (PAR) | Integrated Oil | EU Commission cleared M.12410 (TotalEnergies concentration) on 12 Jun; CEO warning on Hormuz risk this week | €71; 1y +42%; RSI 26 (oversold); above 200d/30w |
| Iberdrola | ES (MAD) | Utilities | Iberian-grid load through the heatwave week | €21.19; at 52w high; 1y +35%; RSI 91 (extreme); above 200d/30w |
| Santander | ES (MAD) | Banks | Continuation of the Spanish-bank re-rating; 1y move now +78% | €12.00; at 52w high; 1y +78%; RSI 77; above 200d/30w |
Technicals: market data, computed 2026-06-25.
§04 · Calendar ahead
- 2026-06-25 — Riksbank rate decision (SE). Publishing day; result will land before this brief reaches most inboxes. Second-order read for the krona and any SEK-funded carry.
- 2026-07-02 — US Non-Farm Payrolls. Prints into a curve that has already flattened (10Y-2Y at 0.34 pp, four basis points off the prior week). A soft payroll re-rates the Fed-cut path and pulls EUR/USD with it.
§05 · Disclaimer
This is research material, not investment advice. Dated 2026-06-25. Brief version Aavistus EU / 2026-W27 / v1.